This photo appeared in the Bulletin, November 18, 1991. The text was:

'Drought Conditions - Some facts & Figures

The sound of rain on the roof is almost forgotten in the Hunter.

The lack of rainfall is causing consternation to the region's and the nation's farmers, primary producers and industry alike, not to mention the very real danger of bushfires threatening home and lives. If this year shapes up the way it looks like going, it will be a record year for lack of rainfall, in other words: drought.

One person who knows more about the weather patterns and predictions than most is Martin Babakhan, the Senior Meteorological Officer for the Bureau of Meteorology based at Williamtown Air Base.

Martin is also a part-time lecturer for the University's Aviation course, his knowledge and teaching of aviation meteorology forming a vital component of the course.

When BULLETIN approached Martin for his views on drought that has now widened to nearly two-thirds of the State he supplied a wealth of information that put the situation into perspective and provides some interesting facts.

Sixty five percent of the State is now drought-declared; the rain that has fallen is described as 'patchy, light and insignificant': that this is happening during spring is real cause for concern.

Martin says indications are that 1991 may be the year of least rainfall and the fewest days of rain. Rainfall observations at Williamtown since 1942 can be broken down as in figure 1.

"Current indications are that this could be the worst year of drought experienced in the Hunter Region," Martin said.

"Our predictions show that we are now approaching what is known as an 'El Nino/ Southern Oscillation Episode' which results in rainfall deficiencies in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

"Winter 1991 has seen the development of an El Nino/South Oscillation episode with some precursor effect emerging as early as autumn. The South Oscillation Index (SOI) shows persisting negative values for seven months with four of those months having significantly negative indices," he said.

He said that, on seasonal timescales and from season to season, the most important influence on large scale weather patterns over eastern Australia is El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The South Oscillation is a major fluctuation in the tropical atmospheric circulation across the Pacific Ocean.

In the historical record, most major negative excursions of the SOI have been accompanied by significant drought areas in eastern Australia. By contrast, positive excursions have generally resulted in widespread above average rainfall.

Martin said the outlook for the remainder of the year indicates the continuation of existing dry condition with a spread of affected areas into Victoria during late spring.

"It appears that there may be a return to normal from January to April, 1992, with February and March the likely most break months,' he said."

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